In a previous article, I'd argued that, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA ) bulls had historically been correct that competition from legacy ICE manufacturers wouldn't emerge as quickly as many had forecast, that was changing dramatically with offerings from Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF), Jaguar, Audi, etc.

In response, one repeated counter-argument to the threat of competition was the idea that no one could actually compete with TSLA, since only TSLA has a Supercharger Network. Again, I admit that TSLA's forward thinking in establishing its Supercharger Network was under-appreciated by bears (myself included), but again, this advantage is now rapidly disappearing as I will argue in the remainder of this article.

But, to begin, let's look at a typical example of why bulls certainly had a historically accurate argument. Consider this anecdote from one of the Jaguar I-PACE forums of a traveler in Europe:

We came back from our 2,200km ski trip to the French Alps yesterday. The Ipace drives great, but the overall EV experience (charging/range) and many software bugs in the Ipace, are just very disappointing. I don't recommend long trips to anybody at this point in time.

Charging itself was a mixed batch. Allego chargers at Van der Valk Endhoven are to be avoided as all the fast chargers are either out of order or only giving 6KW output. The 22KW Hotel chargers worked as expected, but on 7 different Ionity fast chargers in Germany and Switzerland and the Dutch Fastned charger at Ooiendonk, I was able to charge at the currently max speed on 200A (>100% charge/hour in the Incontrol app) only at 2 of them. It usually hovered at 65-85% charge/hour. Despite having fast chargers available, it will take you easily twice the amount of time to drive the same distance as an ICE. Hopefully, this will be resolved/improved with the new software updates.

Similar complaints about lack of fast DC charging infrastructure and/or faulty/intermittent charging were prevalent on other forums in 2017 and much of 2018. And these complaints applied equally to Europe and the US.

TSLA, on the other hand, has a robust 120 kW Supercharger Network as illustrated in these recent screen grabs from its site:

Yet, while TSLA has an impressive network, the rate of growth has been slowing, as shown by this graph:

Moreover, the number of TSLA vehicles on the road versus Superchargers has also been increasing, as shown in this graphic:

With TSLA's new frugality (pre-cursor to bigger cash problems?), the rate of the Supercharger Network expansion is likely to slow further, and the cars/charger metric will continue to swell. Indeed, there are now frequent complaints of long lines at charging stations, particularly during busy travel times. There's even a twitter hashtag for it #TESLAQUEUE (which is a clever play on the stock symbol should the company ever go bankrupt!).

And as I write this, the competitive value of the TSLA Supercharging Network took another hit, with TSLA announcing "Drastically higher Supercharging prices around the world" (though admittedly, increasing prices should help with the problem of long lines).

So, while bulls had been right that TSLA's Supercharging Network was an impressive moat, not only has TSLA not been expanding it at a rate commensurate with TSLA vehicle production (and has now increased its per unit pricing to further devalue its advantage), but competitive fast DC charging alternatives are now expanding rapidly. Here's a short survey to justify this claim (note I'm considering North America and Europe predominantly here; China has its own charging standards, while the analysis presented here would also show that the remainder of Asia has a charging network that's eroding TSLA's advantages).

For a top level view, let's begin with a snapshot of the 14 networks reported by PlugShare as well as the map:

The orange pins on the map are "high power" chargers. Now, let's look at some of the individual players.

EVgo bills itself as the "Nation's Largest Public EV Fast Charging Network" and has more than 1,000 fast chargers in operation today:

Moreover, while many of the current chargers are rated at 50 kW (which is considerably slower than the TSLA Superchargers which deliver up to 120 kW), EVgo is now actively expanding its network to deliver much higher power. For example, here's an announcement for a critical location linking the LA basin to Las Vegas (my emphasis):

Los Angeles, CA (December 11, 2018) - EVgo, the nation's largest public electric vehicle (EV) fast charging network, announced today that it has added four new EV fast chargers to the company's Baker, CA station, enabling all-electric road trips between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The launch of these new chargers makes six total EVgo fast chargers under a solar-powered canopy at the World's Tallest Thermometer, just off of I-15-two 50 kW fast chargers, new super-fast 150 kW and 175 kW chargers, and an ultra-fast 350 kW charger, all backed up with second-life batteries for energy storage.

By offering all EV drivers both CCS and CHAdeMO options on all its chargers - fast, super-fast, and ultra-fast - EVgo's Baker fast charging hub enables all fast charge-capable EV drivers to make the 270-mile trip between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The expansion of EVgo's Baker site makes it a technology showcase offering the widest variety of charging speed options available at a single public EV charging location in the US.

The newly expanded Baker fast charging hub builds on the two 50kW fast chargers EVgo previously deployed in order to enable EV drivers to travel the critical Las Vegas to Los Angeles route. Even though no EV available today at commercial volumes is able to charge at 350 kW, EVgo has grown both the number and throughput of fast chargers at Baker in order to test a variety of charging speeds and future-proof customers' fast charging experiences on this corridor. Since the vehicles themselves guide how fast a particular car can charge, in most cases, today's EV drivers will find that their EVs will charge at around 50 kW even on the new 150kW, 175kW, or 350kW chargers.

I'll discuss the importance of the 350 kW charger at the end of this article.

While EVgo is a public network open to any EV (including Teslas via a CHAdeMO adapter), it's interesting that EVgo has announced a multi-year contract with Hyundai and Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF) (both of which I believe are soon to be formidable competitors to TSLA). From the PR: "The inclusion of EVgo station location and availability in Hyundai and Kia's in-vehicle navigation system makes it easier for drivers to find and use EVgo's reliable and convenient fast charging stations." This contract is another step in eroding TSLA's charging "moat".

And just recently, GM (GM) announced a similar partnership (also with ChargePoint and Greenlots):

Besides providing users with an easy way to find the nearest available charger, GM revealed plans to streamline the charging process. If everything goes according to plan, drivers could use a single app to gain access to ChargePoint, EVgo and Greenlots chargers instead of having to sign up for all three separately. The company also hinted the app could be used to begin the charging process, instead of swiping a membership card.

The final details are still being hammered out, but GM expects the partnerships will be in place by the end of the first quarter. When this occurs, drivers can expect a more seamless charging experience.

ChargePoint makes numerous charging stations, but most are level 2 and so not of direct interest here. Instead, it's the fast chargers, particularly the new Express Plus chargers that will compete with and potentially eventually surpass TSLA's Supercharging Network.

Here are the basic specifications for the fast chargers (you can drill down at the link for more info):

The current ChargePoint fast charging network currently looks like this, and it's expanding rapidly:

The key will be to see how quickly the Express Plus product gets deployed. Stay tuned...

"Electrify America is a company setup in 2018 to promote electric vehicles and build a nationwide charging network with $2 billion USD as part of the Volkswagen Group's agreement after admitting to diesel emissions cheating. Volkswagen also set up Electrify Canada."

And according to its own website:

Electrify America's DC Fast EV charging stations will be located along high-traffic corridors in 39 states, including two cross-country routes. Locations will accommodate between four and ten chargers, with charging power levels up to 350kW available at every station, capable of adding 20 miles of range per minute to a vehicle. Nationally, each planned station site will be located no more than 120 miles apart and, on key East and West Coast highways, planned locations average only 70 miles apart.

Public site plans include featuring charging speeds of up to 150kW. For a typical EV, 150kW will provide about 9 miles of range per minute of charging, compared with 3 miles per minute from 50kW chargers commonly available today.

Here's the map of its forthcoming fast charging network:

Thus, Electrify America's network will also substantially reduce the value of TSLA's erstwhile moat.

As discussed above, ChargePoint is putting in a high-speed charging network in (Western) Europe, similar to that in North America. Here's a snapshot of the current network, which is also expanding rapidly:

And again, it will be interesting to see how quickly it rolls out the Express Plus product in Europe. One promising note is the recent partnership with Daimler (OTCPK:DMLRY):

Amsterdam, The Netherlands - December 13, 2018 - ChargePoint, the world's leading electric vehicle (EV) charging network, today announced it has been selected by global automaker Daimler to deploy charging solutions for retailers in Germany as the automaker prepares for a significant increase in electrified models in the coming years. Building upon a collective commitment to furthering the mass adoption of electrification in Europe, the agreement comes after Daimler led ChargePoint's $125 million Series G funding round last year as a means to support the expansion of the company into Europe.

The deal includes the deployment of AC and fast chargers up to 150 kW at Daimler-owned properties beginning this year and into 2019. The charging solutions will be available for retailers of Mercedes-Benz Cars, Vans and Trucks. Daimler retailers across the country are increasingly investing ahead Daimler's push into electric vehicles in the coming years.

Ionity describes itself as "a joint venture of BMW Group (OTCPK:BMWYY), Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company (F), and Volkswagen Group (OTCPK:VWAGY) with Audi and Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY). Our goal is simple: Building a high-power charging network for electric vehicles along major highways in Europe."

And when it says "high power", it means it. From the FAQ (my emphasis): "Each charging station and point offers the potential of up to 350 kW. Smart logic inside the charger means all EVs equipped with CCS will automatically charge at the fastest rate their batteries can safely handle."

Ionity differs from the other vendors discussed up to now, in that it has standardized on the CCS charging standard, which most European cars use, but which currently can't be used by Japanese and Korean manufacturers.

It has just got into the business but is growing quickly as attested to by this graphic:

Given that the charging rate supported by this offering is almost three times that of the current Supercharger Network, Ionity may obviate any advantage that TSLA previously held.

And before closing with a quick look at high rate charging, I should offer a counterpoise to my opening quote. Here's another post from the European I-Pace forum, this one very happy with the Ionity network (my emphasis):

Trip from the Netherlands to Switzerland - Yesterday we managed to travel 1.000 km to the Swiss Alp. With a I-Pace loaded with 2 persons, a young dog, lots of stuff and..... a roofbox! With quitte challenging conditions: strong headwind (6 Bft.) and low temperatures (5 degrees). Destination 1.500 meters above sea level.

Knowing we needed more charging stops we tried to use only charging point with 100 kW power or more. Mission accomplished. The Ionity network works very well. We used Brohltal west, Brohsal west and Mahlberg (yes, operational, the Ionity site mentions under construction). All chargers managed to deliver at 80kW op to 80% soc. After this it drops to approx 40 kW, but that's fine as well. Sometimes an Ionity charger does not work or stops after 1-2 minutes, but taking another charger solves this problem. At all sites we were the only user, so choice enough!

Previously, only Teslas could charge at high rates (120 kW), while most other manufacturers were limited to about 50 kW. But this has changed and continues to change. The Jaguar I-Pace is rated at 100 kW, though from reading the forums, in actuality, it currently is limited to about 88 kW. The new Nissan Leaf is rated at 100 kW. The Hyundai Kona allows 80 kW. And the new Audi E-tron is expected to charge at up to 150 kW. Indeed, here's a charging graph from a recent test at a 175 kW charger:

Development of increased charging rates is expected to continue, with Porsche and BMW leading the way. From a recent Bloomberg story (my emphasis):

BMW AG and Porsche unveiled a charging station that can jolt electric vehicles with enough power to drive 100 kilometers (62 miles) in less than three minutes, pushing ahead of Tesla Inc. in the race to make battery-powered cars more convenient.

The ultra-fast prototype charger has capacity of 450 kilowatts, more than triple Tesla's Superchargers. Test vehicles developed to take that much power were recharged to 80 percent capacity in 15 minutes. Tesla's stations need about 30 minutes for a similar charge, according to its website.

While TSLA once held a meaningful competitive advantage due to its Supercharger Network, that advantage is rapidly evaporating. Not only are there a number of competitive networks being built out globally, but the charging rates of newer EVs are approaching - and in some cases, surpassing - TSLA's current offerings (though, admittedly, TSLA will also improve its charging rates over time).

As the number of bullish arguments for owning TSLA continues to fall, and as many newer bearish developments arise, I continue to hold a short position in the stock, with the expectation that its valuation will eventually fall to that of its automotive peers.

This article was written by

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I actively trade around core positions.